Underdog Bias: Why We Overestimate Opponents
By Richard Ngo —
People often underestimate their own power while overestimating their opponents’. Richard Ngo calls this “Underdog Bias”, and argues it’s one of the most important cognitive biases for understanding today’s world.
📌 What is Underdog Bias?
- People see themselves as the weaker side.
- They notice their own struggles and divisions.
- They imagine opponents as more unified and powerful.
- This creates distorted views of power in politics, culture, and global conflicts.
⚖️ Examples of Underdog Bias
1. Government vs Industry
Regulators feel underfunded & constrained, while corporations feel threatened by regulations.
2. Tech vs Media
Journalists see themselves fighting tech power. Tech companies feel they battle cultural/media bias.
3. Elites vs Masses
Normal people feel controlled by elites. Elites fear populist uprisings.
4. Republicans vs Democrats
Republicans say Democrats dominate universities/media. Democrats say Republicans benefit from structural advantages.
5. America vs China
The US fears China’s rise, while China sees itself as overcoming historical disadvantage.
6. Israel vs Palestine
Palestinians see themselves as underdogs against Israeli military might. Israelis see themselves as underdogs in a hostile region.
🔍 Why Does Underdog Bias Exist?
- In tribal societies, people couldn’t switch sides, so feeling threatened made them fight harder.
- Today, being seen as a victim often brings sympathy, allies, and attention.
- Psychologically, it’s easier to believe: “We are weak but righteous.”
✅ How to Reduce Underdog Bias
“They’re just as scared of us as we are of them.”
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